The 2025 MBA Annual Convention & Expo in Las Vegas once again proved why it stands as the mortgage industry's premier gathering, bringing together thousands of mortgage professionals to navigate the evolving mortgage landscape. Radian was proud to sponsor this year’s MBA main event with Jim Gaffigan's hilarious performance and OneRepublic's entertaining concert, bringing our community together for an incredible experience.

Beyond the entertainment and celebrations, the convention served as a crucial forum for industry leaders to address pressing topics, challenges, and opportunities for mortgage banking today. Radian had several takeaways from the many informative sessions. We observed meaningful dialogue from industry leaders that covered a wide array of topics that were centered around three pivotal themes: market shifts amid profitability pressures, regulatory evolution, and the use of AI.

Market Outlook

Setting the stage, Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Business Development of MBA, outlined a challenging path through 2028, noting that slow global growth, tariff-driven inflationary pressures, and significant demographic headwinds may reshape housing demand in the medium term.

Demographic and market changes may represent a fundamental restructuring of long-term housing demands.  For instance, population projections show that net immigration may turn negative by the end of 2025, with the U.S. experiencing population decline by 2030 and beyond. This could reduce overall housing demand or rebalance the market in favor of sellers or buyers. Further, markets may differ depending on geography. “Housing has always been local but we’re seeing more extremes in different markets. The Mid-West and Northeast we’re not seeing the same amount of building, likely due to higher costs so there’s tighter inventory. But in the South and West, we’re seeing higher inventory and less demand” says panelist Joel Kan, VP, Deputy Chief Economist of MBA.

Origination volumes are projected to grow to $2.2 trillion by 2026 (an 8% unit increase), but profitability remains stubbornly challenged. Fratantoni noted that this will still be a tough market for lenders in 2027 and 2028.

Marina Walsh, CMB, Vice President of Industry Analysis of MBA, shared industry performance data that revealed 10 quarters of net production losses for independent mortgage bankers since 2022. Net production income has recently reached $950 per loan, the highest level since 2021. Less than optimal pull-through rates are a contributing factor in the low net production income. Sitting at around 55%, almost one in two bank loans are not closing.

Consumer sentiment is currently suggesting caution as credit delinquencies move higher, but affordability is slowly starting to improve. Though weak, growth in home sales is projected to be on the horizon. Kan notes that, “purchase applications are up 15-20% over the last 6 months, which is a good thing.”

The key takeaway from the economic outlook is that there may be modest growth in home sales in 2026 and, but based on the data, lenders may still face challenges.

Technology and the Shift to an AI Focus

Technology investments and expenses continue climbing as a percentage of total costs, yet the ROI on technology, including artificial intelligence (AI) investments has proven to be difficult to justify and measure. AI is positioned as a long-term productivity play, but that promise isn't yet reflected in labor data or pull-through rates.

The AI boom was compared to the internet bubble in the late 90’s to early 00’s, but despite this bubble, “The most important companies of the next 20 years are being created now,” said Brian Woodring, CIO of Newrez LLC. Bill Emerson, 2016 MBA Chairman and President of Rocket Companies, continues to add that AI is, “Here to stay. The people who will succeed with it are the ones that actually do the most with it, actually have an impact, infect their business, become trend setters in how it’s going to be working in every different industry… my humble opinion is it’s only going to get better.”

The opportunities are seemingly endless when it comes to potential ways that the mortgage industry can use AI. Some companies have embraced this change, running multiple AI projects simultaneously, building their own internal AI capabilities or outsourcing that technology.

Gary Cohn, former Director of the White House National Economic Council said, “I’m extremely bullish on AI, but you have to get your data in order, and this will have a big impact on productivity. This productivity boom will make us have to retrain knowledgeable workers so I don’t believe this will result in tons of lost jobs.”

Concerns about AI replacing mortgage jobs have not shown to be prevalent as this industry is centered around human interactions. The consensus is that however players in this industry decide to use and implement AI, it will most likely be integrated around human experience.

The ARM Shift

30-year fixed-rate mortgages may no longer be the traditional path to homeownership. One adaptation strategy is beginning to emerge: a recent transition to an ARM-dominated market. As borrowers seek rate relief, ARMs are trading 80-100 basis points lower than 30-year fixed-rates. This is beginning to reshape product mix and borrower behavior. It represents strategic market adaptation methods that lenders and borrowers alike are beginning to recognize.

Regulatory Evolution

Perhaps one of the most energizing moments came with recognition of genuine regulatory progress. Robert Broeksmit, CMB, President and CEO of MBA says, “Bipartisan legislation to ban trigger leads, [a] massive win for you. Fully implemented in 2026, your customers will be safe from the barrage of calls and emails once they apply for a mortgage. Farewell trigger leads, don’t let the door hit your a** on the way out.”  This represents a major victory for industry advocacy. The momentum on this crucial consumer protection issue helps support lender-borrower relationships.

Credit Reporting Reform

One of the convention's most significant policy discussions centered on credit reporting. Other lending sectors (e.g., auto loans, credit cards) don't require all three credit bureaus like mortgage originations do. In July 2025, FHFA Director Pulte approved the use of either FICO or VantageScore 4.0 to deliver mortgage loans instead of mandating FICO alone, which has been the standard operating procedure since 1995.

Credit report costs have increased significantly in recent years. The MBA has made this a top advocacy priority as heightened costs ultimately depress affordability. FICO's announcement of a new pricing model, charging lenders directly at $10, could help introduce meaningful competition.

GSE Reform

One panel discussion highlighted the stakes of GSE reform. The primary concern from the panel centered on the pace of reform. Panelists worried that focus has shifted from a thoughtful transition to a rushed implementation.

Stanley C. Middleman, CEO of Freedom Mortgage Corporation, says, “There’s something really, fundamentally, important about the GSEs. And that’s when s*** hits the fan… that the government steps in an supports the MBS.” He continues to speak about government intervention saying that, “The one thing they’ve done is when we needed the most, they stepped up and supported that MBS, and that’s one of the reasons that we didn’t see 1929.” Middleman believes that the government guarantee backing mortgage-backed securities remains essential during crises.

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers offered a crucial reminder: "Homeownership is what anchors people in communities and makes our society stronger. The American economy has a remarkable resilience to it."

Panelists believe the current homeownership rate reflects a balanced level achieved through GSE guarantees, government loan programs, and diverse lender types. The convention's discourse around reform reflects a commitment to thoughtful evolution while navigating change.

Looking Forward

The industry is experiencing change that leaves mortgage professionals with differing opinions but open minds. Growth, while slower, is forecasted to be on the horizon. Regulatory oversight may be shifting, requiring new compliance approaches. Technology and AI investment continues to climb without always delivering measurable returns. The conversations also reflected genuine progress: regulatory victories on trigger leads, movement toward credit reporting reform, and increasing sophistication in how the industry addresses innovation challenges and opportunities such as AI integration.

Events like these serve as a reminder that while we navigate changes and complexity within the industry, we do so as a unified community committed to advancing homeownership opportunities across the U.S.

Community and Connection

There is a certain power and sense of understanding received with in-person industry gatherings. Whether you’re connecting with clients or capitalizing on the informative sessions, each year the MBA is an amazing experience for those involved. This year's event was particularly special to those at Radian due to the blend of serious industry discourse with moments of connection and celebration.

The Radian team is proud to be a part of an event that creates connection and shares key learnings across the mortgage industry. We’re thrilled to have been a part of your MBA experience.

 

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